Fantasy Premier League – How To Solve The Diego Costa Conundrum

Last season Marc Lingard from Durban, South Africa, produced an incredible 2350 points to grab top spot in South Africa, and 132nd overall of approximately 3.5 million players on Fantasy Premier League. An amazing achievement.

Towards the end of last season, Marc also participated in the trial of Ultimate FPL. Of the 22,225 players that competed, his final rank was 20th overall, again finishing 1st place in South Africa!

You can check in on how Marc is getting on in FPL this season and follow his top class tips and advice thorugh his blog via this link FantasyFootballGoals.com

 

Marc has been kind enough to take a look at FPL’s top tier strikers for Fantasy Football Strategist and analyse which forwards, priced above 8m, you should be looking at getting in your FPL squad right now.

 

By Marc Lingard

There are currently 11 strikers in FPL presently priced at 8.0 m or more. Which of these, if any, should you have in your squad right now, and why?

Aguero, Costa, Sturridge and Benteke are listed as injured at present, while Giroud is rotating with Walcott up front for ARS. I will ignore them for now, though I personally still have Costa in my team, and have had a closer look at the remaining six players.

 

ROONEY (10.2m)
Rooney has the worst points per 90 minutes played (P90) of all 11 strikers on this list for both this season and last. His career record is fine but there’s little reason to think that he’s going to get back to those levels any time soon, considering how few chances are being created by MUN’s current style of play. Pass unless something dramatic happens.

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KANE (9.3m)
Kane’s season has not been good. His P90 this season is level with Costa as the second worst on this list. However, his hat-trick last week has caught everyone’s attention and the hope is that this will spark a return to his form of last season. There is a concern that TOT’s fixtures ahead (AVL – ars – WHU – CHE – wba) are not that great, but they are playing really well and I think that the potential for goals is there, even during this run of matches. Kane is the player I nearly brought in for Costa last night, as his price was rising. I chose to hold back for the time being, but he is a strong option if you believe this is the start of a good run for him. Of the players on the list, only Aguero outperformed Kane last season.

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LUKAKU (8.4m)
Lukaku is a popular choice to bring into FPL squads right now. One of the main reasons is that EVE’s fixtures to start the season were absolutely awful and, beginning this weekend with SUN, they have improved dramatically. There is every reason to expect goals from EVE every time they take to the field from now until 2016. Lukaku’s record last season was not impressive by the standards of this list, but his career record is very good and his price makes him decent value. His 5 goals to date this season, considering the opposition faced so far, is solid. If the ‘easy’ fixtures ahead allow him to improve on this output, he could be an absolute bargain right now.

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PELLE (8.4m)
Pelle has matched Lukaku’s 5 goals so far but also picked up 5 assists. Fixture difficulty swings strongly into Lukaku’s favour from gameweek 14 which looks an ideal time to switch if you are a Pelle owner. Pelle’s record last season was also similar to Lukaku’s but the latter’s previous two seasons suggest a greater upside potential for Lukaku, if he can recapture those scoring rates.

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BONY (8.3m)
Bony has excellent P90 scores for this season, last season, and his career totals. He is an excellent value option at this price, but this only applies when he plays. Unfortunately for him, this is only when Aguero is injured. Many FPL managers are using Bony while Aguero is out. While certainly a valid option, I am put off by the fact that I now have de Bruyne in my squad and I would prefer not to double up with Bony for MCI’s current fixtures. Yes, MCI can score bags of goals but having Bony also means being ‘forced’ to bring in Aguero as soon as he is fit and making sure of getting the timing right. Having Bony in your squads for the next two games could certainly pay off, but make sure your plans are in place to trade him out for gameweek 13 when Aguero is likely to return.

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MARTIAL (8.3m)
More than 1 million FPL managers jumped onto Martial during his first few weeks in the league. More than 100 000 have since sold him. My view was always that, given MUN’s fixtures, buying him early was a mistake and that selling him after a subsequent short spell without a goal is likewise a mistake. However, there are now extenuating circumstances. LVG has shifted Martial out to the left wing from his initial centre forward role where he looked so impressive. While he continues to play out wide with Rooney up front, there is little reason to have Martial in your squad. If LVG returns to the previous formation with Martial up front, I’d give serious thought to making him one of my three strikers.

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To summarise, there are a number of ways to approach your top tier striker position. If you have Costa in your squad, there is little wrong with holding onto him for the next few weeks if his injury doesn’t look like it will keep him from playing. If you choose to sell, you should probably go with either Kane or Lukaku. You could also go with Pelle for three weeks and switch to Lukaku later, or go with Bony and be ready to jump ship (sideways to Lukaku/Kane, or upwards to Aguero) when Aguero returns.

My personal plan will be to bring Aguero back in but I may be willing to go with just de Bruyne from MCI for a while, perhaps until gameweek 18. In the meantime, either of Lukaku or Kane looks ideal to take over from Costa should I need to replace him. Pelle and Bony are both only short-term solutions which I would prefer to avoid.

 

You can keep up to date with Marc’s FPL achievements on Twitter by following him here @MarcLingard

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